Sunday 8 August 2010

50k Part 2

Five players remain, Oppenheim holds the chip lead. The Mizrachi brothers are the short stacks. In his usual rapper-esque get-up Chino Rheem tells MM to "shake it off".

Hand 1 of the episode begins with one of the favoured Chad-isms, Shchemelev raising with A6dd, "Schemelev studied mathematics at St Petersburg state (lol) University in Russia, I believe they are the Rambling.....?" I've never understood any of those references, I guess you have to know about US college sports to compute that correctly.

Juanda flats in the seat next to him with JJ, a move that has been criticised, but I don't mind in this situation. The Mizrachis are still to act with 12.5 and 16 bbs, perfect for a shove, while Juanda has 35bbs and is covered by Vladimir's 70bbs. I can't see him getting much value with JJ and those stacks by 3-betting in that spot. He also has to consider the ICM implications, going broke with 35bbs would be disastrous given the brother's stacks. The only thing a 3-bet achieves is to ensure a heads-up pot. The way it plays out, given that we knoe the hands and outcome, flatting looks bad, but I don't think it was necessarily a bad move. Juanda flats and then Michael Mizrachi also flats KQ off. Vladimir made it just under 3 bbs to go, Mizrachi has 16 to start the hand. It's definitely a live player move, good online players are folding or shoving there, but I don't think it's the awful mistake many have made it out to be.

"There are a lot of other poker playing brothers people don't know about Lon, the Super Mario brothers, the Jonas brothers, the Marx brothers, Parker brothers, the Almond brothers, Smothers brothers."

Both blinds fold and they all go to a Q 10 5 flop, Vladimir and Juanda check, Mizrachi shoves, Vladimir quickly folds and Juanda deliberates then folds.

Hand 2 is the brother vs brother destruction hand, Michael opens QJ off to 200k from the button, Robert shoves for 665k. Michael is priced in and has to call. He opened over 3bbs here, 2-2.5 and maybe he can fold, but probably not. Robert had 10bbs so his play was easy.

Oppenheim remarks that, "This is going to be like a Greek tragedy", Chad is quick off the mark with, "Well in Greek tragedies someone always dies no?"

Michael turns the Jack and eliminates his brother in fifth, and bumps Michael to around the 30bb mark. ESPN shows us the history of the $50k event, Reese, Deeb, Nguyen and the man who the TV shunned and is destined to be known as the forgotten champion, David Bach.

Hand 3 has Michael making it a little less this time, 150k and 2.5bbs from the button with KcJc. Schemelev makes a questionable call from the bb with 65off. The flopp falls 9 8 3 rainbow and goes check check. Vladimir makes the donkey end of the straight when the 7 hits the turn. Vladimir bets 175k, giving Mizrachi 3:1, not an unreasonable call to make if you think making a pair is live. He runs good when the 10 lands on the river. Vladimir leads for 350k which I don't like, as it opens him up to being bluffed, and he's unlikely to get value out of anything that he can beat. Check-call was deffo the best play. MM makes it 1m to go and Vladimir folds.

"I think Schemelev has just found out that the Grinder and Robert are related."

Hand 4 sees Juanda shove 21bbs UTG with K9dds. Ermmmm....ok. Not sure what he was up to there, he's fine to open and then fold if shoved on, which would have happened as Vladimir has 10 10 in the bb and wins.

Then there's a short clip about how the Mizrachi's love each other. "I don't buy it, I'm still bitter that my older brother Steve beat me in a potato sack race in 1969."

Hand 5, and the blinds are up to 40-80k, Mizrachi completes K7 off in the small and Opie checks 76hh in the big. The flop comes Ah3h5d, massive for Oppenheim. Suprisingly he checks behind. The turn is the 7c and Mizrachi bets 125k, Opie flats him. the river is the Ad, and Mizzrachi makes a very nice value bet of 440k into 470k. Oppenheim tanks and does live player histrionics, melodramatically telling Grinder he had "a straight flush draw."
"If that's a straight flush draw, I'm the count of Monte Cristo Lon."

Oppenheim decided that he wanted to get more value out of his massive drawn than just a c/fold on the flop from the Grinder, but that got him into a sticky spot.

Hand 6 is another Grinder sb vs Opie bb battle, at just over 60bbs effective. Grinder has 10 8 off, Opoe J7 off, check check on AQ8ss, 5c on turn, Mizrachi bets 100k into 220k, Opie floats, 4d on river, Grinder bets 300k into 420k, Opie makes it 850k total, 550k more, and Grinder calls!

There has been a lot said about Mizrachi's play on this Final Table, but he just owned the supposedly spectacular Oppenheim here. The river is a relatively easy check call, but the bet-call is superb, and I really think he had it in mind that Opie might try a funky bluff. This pot propelled him back to the chip-lead.

Hand 7 is the wild card hand, Opie in the sb with the wild card vs Schemelev in the bb with Q10 off. Opie completes, Vlad checks (I would raise here). Q72dd and Opie bets 130k into 225k. Vlad flats. The turn is the Jack of spades, Opie bets 345k into 515. There is 1.2m in the pot going to the Jh river, and Opie bets 390k. Vlad calls, and Opie shows 9h7h. How he thought he was getting 3 streets of value out of that hand is beyond me. Another million dropped by the cash game wizard.

We get a Schemelev segment, which is all subtitled, he basically tells us how ace he is and how Russia owns poker.

"A Russian wearing snakeskin loafers, that's like Elvis eating Borscht, I don't know what to believe anymore."

Hand 8 has the blinds up to 45k-90k with 25k ante. Vlad makes it 250k from the button with A4 off, Grinder makes it 600k with KQ, and Opie makes it 3.3m total with an all-in ship. It costs Grinder 2.7m to win 4.225m so he's getting 1.5-1, needing 42.5%. It costs him half his stack to call.

I think the Grinder should have made it more like 800k to begin with, as the Russian was almost certainly going to call an extra 350k in position with most of his button raising range. Opie ships around 37bbs in, so given the action and what little I know about him I have him on 22+ AJ+, and against that range Grinder is 38%. If he had made it 800k in the first place it just about squeaks his call into the mathematically correct territory.

Overall I think it's a marginal error, but Grinder decided to gamble and it worked out, Opie showing 88 and losing on the river. The Grinder and Vlad go heads-up. Grinder stars with 10m and over 110bbs while Vlad has 7.2m and 80bbs so they're both pretty deep.

Hand 9 has Grinder making it 245k with KJ off and Vlad re-popping aggresively with 86 off to 790k. MM makes the call and they see a Q93 rainbow flop, Vlad puts 1.1m into 1.63m. Grinder calls, the flop is now bloated to 3.83m. The turn is the Qc, and Vlad is in no mans land. He checks over to Grinder, but Grinder declines the invitation to take it down, and they see a 6d river. Having made a hand, Vlad checks to Grinder, and Grinder checks behind. Vlad wins and tilts Mizrachi. This puts them back even at 9m apiece, 100bbs.

Hand 10 has Vlad raise out of turn, it's Grinders button yet the Russian tries to make it 245k. Mizrachi limps and Schemelev then follows through. He has J9 off and Mizrachi has A6 off. Vlad seems eager to play out of position in bloated pots vs the Grinder, not normally a great tactic. The flop is JJ8ss, and Vlad bets 300k into 630. Grinder calls and they see a 7c turn. Vlad checks, Grinder bets 500k into 1.2m. Vlad calls and the river is the Ks. Vlad check calls 600k from the Grinder.

Post-flop I really liked how Vlad played this, he flopped a monster and allowed the Grinder to hang himself, getting max value out of the situation.

Hand 11 is joined on the flop, Vlad has 55 out of position vs MM's 8d4d, the flop is 433. There is already 540k in there so there was a raise/call pre, and given that Vlad checks to grinder it was probably Mizrachi who raised. Grinder bets 275k, and Vlad raises to 600k. Grinder is nothing if not stubborn and he min 3-bets to 950k. I have no idea what he's trying to achieve with this bet. If he sizes it better he at least asks a question of the Russian, but he makes it a size that means most hands are unfoldable. The turn is the 10h and Grinder bets 500k into 2.4m after Vlad checks. Vlad calls the tiny bet.

"By the way if this guy's an amateur, I'm a proffesional broadcaster."

The river is the Kh and it goes check-check. 3.4m goes over to Vlad. What on earth was MM playing at here? He didn't really give Vlad the chance to fold, even though it seems he was trying to.

Vlad has 13m and Mike has 4.4m. The blinds go up to 50-100k, Hand 12 sees MM make it 200k with Ac7c, Vlad makes it 750k with AdJd and Grinder shoves. Given how aggresive Vlad has been out of the bb from what we've seen, it's tough not to shove here if you're Mizrachi. He sucks out with a flush anyway, bringing the stacks back to almost level.

Hand 13 is joined at the flop, MM has Q7d in the sb, Vlad has 98off on a K87 rainbow. Mike check calls the flop and binks on the Qs turn. Mizrachi checks and Vlad bets in a spot where he should be checking, 1.1m into 1.7. Mizrachi ships it in, and Vlad folds.

Mizrachi has 14.5m and Vlad has 3m. We get no real explanation as to how that happened, they were even after the Mizrachi double-up and now it's almost over. Maybe Hand 13 encapsulates the flow of the heads-up portion we didn't see.

Hand 14 sees MM raise to 225k with 3d2d, Vlad flats with Q5cc. The flop is AQ8ss and it goes check check. The turn is the 3c and again it goes check check. The river is the 3 of hearts and now Vlad bets 250k for value. Mizrachi tanks and makes it 2m. The raise is great, but my only complaint is why on earth didn't you put him all-in? Grinder left Vlad with chips to double up with.

Hand 15 is the final hand, Grinder shipping it with Q5off and Vlad calling with Q8 off. The Grinder turns his 5 and ships the tournament. I feel like he is a deserving winner and didn't deserve the criticism he recieved for this performance.

If we analyse all of the individual performances I don't think anyone shone. Thuritz was very unlucky, Alaei wasted a lot of chips with KQ, Baker had a night to forget, Robert Mizrachi didn't stand out, Juanda made a strange pre-flop shove for his bust-out, Oppenheim lacked patience and tried to bluff too much, the Russian put himself into lots of difficult spots and the Grinder was very erratic.

All in all it was a good show and an entertaining final table. Now for the Main Event!

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